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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still