Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a pivotal trip to Washington to confer with US President Donald Trump. This constitutes the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders following months of escalating tensions and heated rhetoric.
Topics for Talks
Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, security, and US strikes on alleged narco-boats are set to be top on the agenda when they meet at the White House on Tuesday.
Background of Strained Relations
Although the two men were cordial in a phone call following a January American action, Petro has subsequently said he believes there is a "genuine danger" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, in turn, has earlier remarked that a such action in Colombia "seems like a good idea".
The upcoming meeting comes after an extended period of the two presidents trading barbs. Petro has often condemned ongoing US attacks on suspected narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the US administration's immigration policies.
"He changed his attitude," Trump was quoted as saying ahead of the White House meeting.
Areas of Disagreement
From Washington's perspective, Trump has accused Petro's government of not doing enough to stop the flow of cocaine heading north, and has pledged to expand military actions to terrestrial objectives throughout the region.
But, the acrimony seemed to dissipate after a "polite" telephone conversation involving the two presidents, which a source from Bogotá later characterized as an 180-degree turn "by both parties".
Diplomatic Bridge
Per diplomatic sources, one man – Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the dialogue. "I have faith in negotiation and I thought our relations were going in the wrong direction," the senator reportedly. "And I'd like to see our relations to improve."
Border Security and the Guerrilla Group
Ahead of Tuesday's visit, Colombian stated that much of the conversation would focus on mutual US and Colombian concerns over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an long border.
Much of that frontier is controlled of the National Liberation Army. This armed faction, established in the 1960s, dominates drug trafficking, extortion, contraband, and illegal mining in frontier regions and reportedly works with compromised officials within the Caracas administration.
For Trump, addressing the threat of the ELN will be crucial to ensuring security for US companies involved in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts note that the ELN has the potential to spoil investment plans by attacking international businesses and employees, as it has in the past done in Colombia.
Counter-Narcotics Collaboration
An equally pressing matter for the two leaders will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the global largest source of the drug. Earlier this year, Petro ordered a temporary pause on information exchange with US security agencies after comments from Washington.
The US has, conversely, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also enacted restrictions on figures in Petro's government, including the leader and members of his family.
"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "Any move to sever Colombian intelligence could also weaken all enforcement efforts."
Possible Scenarios
Despite several issues for collaboration, the possibility for a clash remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," commented a ex-official. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avert Trump's anger... However, it's unpredictable."
For the Colombian leader, even a contentious encounter could be beneficial. His time in office ends in the coming months, and the outcome of the meeting could influence the political future of his preferred successor.
"In some ways, he's kind of in a favorable position," noted a Latin American studies professor. "A positive outcome undermines opposition arguments... If it doesn't, he's protecting national sovereignty. He could use that in his favour."
