Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
