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China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.